Malaria journal
July 19, 2026 · via Europe PMC
Contemporary Anopheles vector species distribution in Scotland and its association with historical hotspots of malaria transmission.
Killen K, Kirby G, Brown R, Krabbendam S, Nelli L, Ferguson HM.
AI summary — for doctors, generated from the abstract only
Mosquito species once responsible for malaria transmission in Scotland are still widespread today, and their current habitat overlaps with historical 18th-century malaria hotspots.
What was studied
Species distribution modeling study using 2023-2024 Scotland-wide mosquito surveillance data to map current Anopheles claviger and An. plumbeus distribution and compare it to historical parish-level malaria hotspots.
Key findings
- Anopheles species showed widespread distribution across coastal and lowland Scotland, extending to the Shetland Islands
- Altitude and land cover were the most consistent predictors of distribution
- Historical malaria hotspot parishes showed significantly higher predicted current mosquito suitability than random background locations
Clinical relevance
Relevant to future climate-change-driven disease risk planning, since the mosquito vectors capable of transmitting malaria historically remain present and widespread in Scotland today.
Limitations
Current environmental/epidemiological conditions remain unsuitable for transmission, so this is a risk-mapping exercise, not evidence of current malaria risk.
Public health planners in Scotland should factor continued Anopheles vector presence into long-term surveillance planning as climate change alters disease receptivity.
This is an AI-generated summary of the published abstract, not a clinical recommendation. It may not reflect the full text or subsequent updates — verify against the original source before acting on it.
Abstract
Background
Malaria poses a significant threat to public health in tropical regions, with nearly half of the global population at risk. Historically, transmission was common in temperate regions including northwestern Europe, with records indicating that malaria was prevalent in Scotland until the early nineteenth century. While current environmental and epidemiological conditions are unsuitable for transmission, future climate, environmental, and land-use change may alter the receptivity of Scotland to malaria and other mosquito-borne diseases. As a first step to assess the potential for future transmission risk, we aimed to map the distribution of two native Anopheles mosquito species in Scotland that have been implicated in historical malaria transmission and assess the relationship between areas of high contemporary suitability and historical hotspots of transmission.
Methods
Using data generated from a recent Scotland-wide mosquito surveillance programme and citizen science reporting (2023-2024), we used species distribution models to predict the current distribution of Anopheles claviger and An. plumbeus in Scotland and identify their associations with environmental and land-use variables. Another historical vector, An. maculipennis s.l., was also recorded but with too few observations for reliable modelling. Using georeferenced historical parish hotspots of malaria in Scotland (eighteenth century records), we tested whether predicted contemporary suitability at hotspot locations was higher than expected by chance using comparisons against randomly sampled background locations.
Results
Several climatic and physical environmental variables were associated with Anopheles species distribution in Scotland, with altitude and landcover being the most consistent, and temperature and precipitation having variable impact across species. Anopheles were predicted to have widespread distribution across coastal and lowland Scotland, with pockets of habitat suitability extending up to the northeast coast and Shetland islands. Historical hotspots of malaria (parish locations) were consistently associated with higher predicted current suitability for Anopheles species than background locations.
Conclusions
Overall, these findings show that potential malaria vectors are still common throughout Scotland and highlight the need for continued monitoring to generate more accurate estimates of predictors, distribution and future disease risk.
DOI
10.1186/s12936-026-06061-1
PMID
42472799
Research metadata (titles, abstracts, authors, publication dates) is sourced from Europe PMC, which aggregates content from PubMed/MEDLINE, PubMed Central, and other providers under the U.S. National Library of Medicine (NLM/NCBI). NLM does not claim copyright on abstracts; the original journal publishers or authors may hold rights to the full articles. AI-generated summaries are derived only from the abstract, never the full text, and are always labeled as AI-generated.
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