European journal of pediatric surgery : official journal of Austrian Association of Pediatric Surgery ... [et al] = Zeitschrift fur Kinderchirurgie
January 9, 2026 · via Europe PMC
Development of a Clinical Predictive Score for Bracing Outcomes in Children with Pectus Carinatum: A Single-center Retrospective Study.
Wang H, He Y, Lin M, +5 more, Liang J.
AI summary — for doctors, generated from the abstract only
In a single-center retrospective study of 182 children with pectus carinatum, a new predictive scoring tool based on factors like initial chest width, treatment compliance, and chest wall morphology showed good ability to distinguish good versus poor responders to bracing therapy, which the authors used to propose a treatment decision pathway.
What was studied
A retrospective study of 182 pediatric pectus carinatum patients evaluated with 3D scanning, using multiple linear regression to identify predictors of improvement with compressive orthotic bracing and to build a predictive efficacy scoring tool, which was then incorporated into a proposed clinical treatment decision pathway.
Key findings
- Smaller initial external thoracic width was identified as a predictor of deformity improvement (exact p-value truncated in the available abstract text).
- Good compliance (p=0.008, β=0.188) and favorable chest wall morphology (p=0.033, β=0.152) were also independent predictors of improvement.
- The resulting scoring tool (Score = Expected %dEHI + 4.761) showed good discriminative ability between good-response (score >0) and poor-response (score ≤0) groups (8.348 vs. 15.320); the exact comparison p-value is truncated in the available abstract text.
- The authors propose specific recommendations by score and reason for poor response: continued bracing for score >0, intensified supervision for poor compliance, surgical counseling for other causes of poor response, and individualized decisions for children under 4.
Clinical relevance
The findings suggest this scoring tool could help clinicians predict which children with pectus carinatum are likely to respond well to bracing and guide decisions about intensifying supervision or considering surgery for those predicted to respond poorly, pending further validation.
Who should care
Limitations
The authors explicitly note this is a single-center retrospective study without a control group, with subjective compliance assessment, and that prospective multicenter studies are needed to validate the model's generalizability.
A newly developed scoring tool using factors like chest width and treatment compliance may help predict which children with pectus carinatum will respond well to bracing, though it still needs external validation.
This is an AI-generated summary of the published abstract, not a clinical recommendation. It may not reflect the full text or subsequent updates — verify against the original source before acting on it.
Abstract
Background and objectives
Pectus carinatum (PC) is a common chest wall deformity, but there is currently a lack of predictive models and tools for forecasting deformity improvement with compressive orthotic bracing (COB) therapy. This study aimed to identify key factors influencing treatment outcomes, and to develop and integrate a predictive efficacy scoring tool with a clinical decision pathway to provide evidence-based treatment recommendations for pediatric PC patients.
Methods
In this retrospective study, 182 pediatric PC patients evaluated and followed using three-dimensional scanning were enrolled. A multiple linear regression model was developed to create and validate a predictive efficacy scoring tool, which subsequently informed the establishment of a treatment decision pathway.
Results
The predictive model identified smaller initial external thoracic width (p p = 0.04, β = 0.271), good compliance (p = 0.008, β = 0.188), and favorable chest wall morphology (p = 0.033, β = 0.152) as independent predictors of deformity improvement. The model was optimized into a predictive efficacy scoring tool (Score = Expected %dEHI + 4.761). Comparison between the good response (score > 0) and poor response (score ≤ 0) groups confirmed the tool's excellent discriminative ability (8.348 vs. 15.320, p < 0.001).
Conclusion
Treatment recommendations were derived by integrating the scoring tool with the decision pathway: children with score > 0 are strongly recommended to continue bracing; those with score ≤ 0 due to poor compliance should receive intensified supervision, while those with score ≤ 0 due to other factors should be counseled on possible surgery; children under 4 years require personalized recommendations integrating the score, symptoms, and parental preferences. However, as a single-center retrospective study without a control group and with subjective compliance assessment, future prospective multicenter studies are required to validate the model's generalizability.
DOI
10.1055/a-2782-7127
PMID
41512909
Research metadata (titles, abstracts, authors, publication dates) is sourced from Europe PMC, which aggregates content from PubMed/MEDLINE, PubMed Central, and other providers under the U.S. National Library of Medicine (NLM/NCBI). NLM does not claim copyright on abstracts; the original journal publishers or authors may hold rights to the full articles. AI-generated summaries are derived only from the abstract, never the full text, and are always labeled as AI-generated.
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