Cardiology in the young
October 16, 2026 · via Europe PMC
Predicting prolonged mechanical ventilation in neonates after cardiac surgery: development of a nomogram for risk prediction based on preoperative and intraoperative factors.
Lian J, Zhang J, Liang J, Wang S, Lu C.
AI summary — for doctors, generated from the abstract only
A nomogram built from preoperative and intraoperative factors predicted prolonged ventilation in neonates after cardiac surgery with moderate accuracy.
What was studied
Retrospective analysis of 385 neonates at one hospital (2018 to 2024) with prolonged ventilation defined as over 7 days, using multivariable logistic regression and nomogram evaluation.
Key findings
- Airway anomalies (OR 2.280), preoperative mechanical ventilation (OR 2.244), elevated intraoperative lactate (OR 2.352) and higher end-of-surgery vasoactive-inotropic score were risk factors; radical surgery was protective (OR 0.220)
- The nomogram achieved an AUC of 0.784 with good calibration
- Prolonged ventilation was associated with longer hospital stay (median 23 vs 16 days)
Clinical relevance
May help teams anticipate ventilation needs and plan postoperative care.
Who should care
Limitations
Single-center retrospective with no external validation described; some p-values in the abstract are cut off.
A reasonable risk tool that requires external validation.
This is an AI-generated summary of the published abstract, not a clinical recommendation. It may not reflect the full text or subsequent updates — verify against the original source before acting on it.
Abstract
Background
Despite improvements in neonatal cardiac surgery, prolonged mechanical ventilation remains a prevalent postoperative complication. This study was designed to build a prolonged mechanical ventilation prediction model based on preoperative and intraoperative factors in neonates (0-28 days) after cardiac surgery.
Methods
A retrospective analysis was conducted on perioperative data of 385 newborns undergoing cardiac surgery at Guangdong Provincial People's Hospital from 2018 to 2024. Prolonged mechanical ventilation was defined as postoperative mechanical ventilation duration >7 days.
Results
Multivariate logistic regression identified independent predictors, visualised via a nomogram. Model performance was assessed by area under receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified airway anomalies (odds ratio = 2.280, 95% confidence interval 1.217-4.271, P = 0.010), preoperative mechanical ventilation (odds ratio = 2.244, 95% confidence interval 1.283-3.925, P = 0.005), radical surgery (odds ratio = 0.220, 95% confidence interval 0.091-0.533, P P = 0.021), intraoperative elevated lactate levels (odds ratio = 2.352, 95% confidence interval 1.256-4.403, P = 0.008), and higher vasoactive-inotropic score at the end of surgery (odds ratio = 1.060, 95% confidence interval 1.023-1.199, P = 0.001) as risk factors for prolonged mechanical ventilation. The nomogram achieved an area under the receiver operating curve of 0.784, with robust calibration and clinical utility. Prolonged mechanical ventilation was associated with prolonged hospital stay (median 23 vs. 16 days, P P < 0.001).
Conclusions
This model accurately stratifies the risks of prolonged mechanical ventilation in neonates after cardiac surgery, potentially guiding postoperative management.
DOI
10.1017/s1047951126124536
PMID
42885529
Research metadata (titles, abstracts, authors, publication dates) is sourced from Europe PMC, which aggregates content from PubMed/MEDLINE, PubMed Central, and other providers under the U.S. National Library of Medicine (NLM/NCBI). NLM does not claim copyright on abstracts; the original journal publishers or authors may hold rights to the full articles. AI-generated summaries are derived only from the abstract, never the full text, and are always labeled as AI-generated.
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